CSU Predicts Fewer Storms in 2026, but Louisiana’s Gulf Coast Still Faces Elevated Hurricane Risk

LAFAYETTE, La. (KPEL News) — Colorado State University released its initial 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast on April 9, and the numbers lean below average for the first time in years.

CSU expects 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger). All three numbers fall below the 30-year average of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The team projects overall activity at about 75% of the 1991-2020 average. That makes it the lowest CSU prediction since 2019.

The reason? El Niño.

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What El Niño Means for Louisiana’s Hurricane Season

The tropical Pacific has weak La Niña conditions right now, but that should flip quickly. CSU’s team anticipates a moderate to strong El Niño taking hold by peak hurricane season from August through October.

El Niño warms waters in the eastern and central Pacific. That warming strengthens upper-level winds that blow across the Caribbean and into the Atlantic, creating vertical wind shear that tears apart developing tropical systems and makes it harder for hurricanes to form.

Lead author Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in CSU’s Department of Atmospheric Science, said the 2026 setup looks similar to the 2006, 2009, 2015, and 2023 seasons. Those analog years ranged widely, though, from well below average to somewhat above average in actual hurricane activity.

“While the average of our analog seasons is somewhat below normal, the large spread in observed activity in our analog years highlights the high levels of uncertainty that typically are associated with our early April outlook,” Klotzbach said.

Why a Below-Average Forecast Doesn’t Mean Louisiana Is Safe

The overall storm count may be down, but the landfall risk numbers tell a more nuanced story for the Gulf Coast.

CSU’s forecast puts the probability of a major hurricane making landfall somewhere along the U.S. coastline at 32%, compared to the historical average of 43%. For the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville, Texas, the number is 20%, below the long-term average of 27%.

Those odds are lower than recent years, but “lower” is not “zero.” Recent history proves the point.

The 2025 season ended with 13 named storms and 5 hurricanes. No hurricane made landfall on the U.S. mainland. But three of those storms reached Category 5 intensity, just one short of the all-time record of four. Hurricane Melissa hit Jamaica as a Category 5, killing at least 95 people and causing an estimated $9 billion in damage across the Caribbean. The World Meteorological Organization retired the name Melissa in March.

Louisiana was spared in 2025. State Climatologist Jay Grymes called it the least impactful season for the Gulf and Atlantic coasts since 2014. A quiet year like that can make it easy to put off preparation for the next one.

The El Niño vs. Warm Water Showdown

The biggest question hanging over the 2026 forecast is one that keeps coming back: can warm Atlantic water override El Niño’s wind shear?

CSU notes that sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic are currently warmer than normal. That warm water fuels hurricanes, lowers atmospheric pressure, and creates instability, all of which help storms develop. Eastern Atlantic waters are running slightly cooler than normal, though, which sends a mixed signal.

The same fight played out in 2023. El Niño was in full effect, but Atlantic sea surface temperatures were at record levels. The warm water won. That season produced 20 named storms, well above average.

Ocean temperatures in 2026 should be warm, but not at 2023 levels. CSU’s team believes El Niño will be the dominant force this time, particularly if a moderate to strong event develops.

Not every forecaster sees it that way. The University of Arizona released its own forecast on April 7, calling for 20 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. Arizona’s model leans heavily on the possibility that warm Atlantic waters will again overwhelm El Niño, just like 2023.

AccuWeather’s outlook, released March 25, lands between the two. AccuWeather projects 11 to 16 named storms, 4 to 7 hurricanes, and 2 to 4 major hurricanes, with 3 to 5 direct U.S. impacts.

Where Louisiana Fits in the 2026 Risk Picture

Even in a below-average season, the northern Gulf Coast keeps landing in the high-risk zone.

AccuWeather’s landfall risk analysis, based on 14 past seasons with similar atmospheric setups, identified the stretch from just west of New Orleans through coastal Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle as the area most likely to take direct tropical impacts in 2026. The analog years behind that call include 2009, 2014, 2018, and 2023, all seasons that brought more storm impacts to the northern Gulf than other parts of the coastline.

Louisiana’s geography compounds the problem no matter what the storm count looks like. Low-lying terrain, miles of exposed coastline, a shallow continental shelf that amplifies storm surge, and dense energy infrastructure along the coast all raise the stakes when any storm tracks into the northern Gulf.

Rapid intensification adds to that risk. AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva warned that deep warm water across the Gulf gives hurricanes a massive energy reservoir that can fuel explosive strengthening just before landfall. Hurricane Michael in 2018 is the textbook case. It went from a tropical depression to a Category 5 landfall at Mexico Beach, Florida, in just three days.

What CSU’s New Forecasting Tools Show

CSU has been issuing hurricane forecasts for 43 years, a tradition started by the late Professor Emeritus Bill Gray in 1984. The 2026 edition introduces a new forecasting tool.

For the first time, CSU used a machine learning-based climate model called the Ai2 Climate Emulator (ACE2), which runs on predicted sea surface temperatures from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. CSU’s traditional statistical model calls for a slightly above-average season, but every other model the team uses, including ACE2, points toward below-average activity.

The team also forecasts Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) west of 60 degrees west longitude. That metric tracks storm frequency, intensity, and duration in the western half of the Atlantic Basin and correlates better with landfalling storms than the broader basinwide ACE number. In El Niño years, a lower percentage of total ACE tends to show up in this western zone, which could mean fewer organized storms threatening landfall.

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What Louisiana Families Should Do Now

The 2026 season officially runs from June 1 through November 30. The National Hurricane Center begins issuing regular Tropical Weather Outlooks on May 15. NOAA typically releases its official seasonal forecast in late May, and CSU will update its numbers on June 10, July 8, and August 5.

For Louisiana residents, the preparation checklist stays the same no matter what any seasonal forecast says:

• Review evacuation routes and update your family’s hurricane plan.
• Check insurance coverage, including flood insurance, which requires a 30-day waiting period before taking effect.
• Stock emergency supplies, including water, nonperishable food, flashlights, batteries, and medications.
• Test generators now and ensure they run properly.
• Download weather apps and make sure portable radios have fresh batteries.
• Visit getagameplan.org for Louisiana’s official hurricane preparedness resources.

“It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you,” CSU’s Michael Bell said.

Along the Gulf Coast, that is not a cliché. A single well-placed storm can overwhelm the numbers in any forecast.