Final Forecast: Colorado State Adjusts Hurricane Outlook Again
(KMDL-FM) There have been two named tropical systems in the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Both of those named systems, Tropical Storm Arthur and Tropical Storm Bertha, impacted Louisiana's coastline.
Colorado State University forecasters involved in the school's Tropical Meteorology Project have been issuing forecasts of tropical weather for decades. This season, they have adjusted their forecast a couple of times, and now we've reached what they are calling the final forecast for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
What Do Forecasters Look For When Creating a Hurricane Prediction?
Forecasters have been monitoring the usual suspects, namely sea surface temperatures and upper-level winds. They have also been keeping a very close eye on El Niño. That's a term given to describe the warming of seawater near the equator in the Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon plays a huge part in the Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Since a strong El Niño usually means a quiet hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin, it is no surprise that a Super El Niño would almost put a lid on it. It has, and the adjusted Colorado State Forecast for the end of the season holds with that assumption.
Does This Mean The Hurricane Season is Basically "Done" in Louisiana?
Absolutely not. Do not stop being vigilant and make sure you always stay on top of tropical weather forecasts because while the season is forecast to be below normal, it only takes one hurricane to make it memorable.
The Colorado State adjusted forecast still holds in the prediction of nine named storms. Four of those nine named storms will become hurricanes. Of those four hurricanes, one will reach Category 3 or higher and earn the designation of a major hurricane.
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I know we tend to think of back-to-school as the end of summer, but actually, as of the first of August, we are just reaching the meteorological midpoint of the summer. Hurricane season lasts until the end of November, so we are far from "in the clear".
The graphic above illustrates just how much of the season is still to come, including the peak, which is still a month away. The big tropical ramp-up, if there is going to be one, will happen over the next four to six weeks.
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The good news out of the tropics right now is that there is no activity on the horizon and none expected to develop at least over the next seven days. Looking at the long-range GFS weather model, it doesn't look as if Louisiana will have any real storm threats, other than afternoon and evening pop-up thunderstorms for the next few weeks.
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