Plenty Yet To Be Decided in the Sun Belt

Coming down the stretch, every game is important for just about every team In the Sun Belt Conference.

Some are fighting just to make the conference tournament, to be held in New Orleans March 12-15. Some are fighting for the regular season title.

And, others are fighting not to have to win four games in four days to get the automatic berth into the NCAA tournament.

Here’s a look at where the teams stand heading into the final three weeks of the regular season.

THREE FOR THE TITLE

All three of these teams have an excellent chance of finishing in the top four and getting a first round bye. The real fight is to bypass the second round as well.

ULM (12-3) HOME (2): Georgia State, Texas State ROAD (3): At Arkansas State, At South Alabama, at Appalachian State---The Warhawks have certainly earned their position at the top of the league and the next three games, all on the road, will have a lot to say whether or not they stay there. Six of ULM’s twelve conference wins are by six points or fewer. Now that Marvin Williams has left the team, the Warhawks only go seven deep. Getting one of the top two seeds and a double bye to the semifinals is crucial for the hopes of Keith Richard’s team to win in New Orleans. It’ll be tough to win three games in three nights with their lack of depth. Two, however, is very doable.

GEORGIA SOUTHERN (11-3) HOME (3): Troy, South Alabama, UT Arlington ROAD: at Appalachian State, at Louisiana, at Georgia State---The Eagles have three of their last four on the road and two of them, at UL and at Georgia State are going to be tough ones. And, although the Eagles have been great at home, games against UTA and an improved USA squad won’t be easy, either. Like ULM, Georgia Southern has a half dozen wins by six points or fewer. That’s either the sign of a really good team or a team that’s living on the edge. We’re about to find out which.

GEORGIA STATE (10-4) HOME (3): South Alabama, Appalachian State, Georgia Southern ROAD (3): AT UALR, at Troy, at ULM---ULM and Georgia Southern are getting most of the love, but the defending regular season champions are rolling right along. The Panthers have won six out of seven and will be favored in two of their three road games. The final week of the season will tell the tale for Georgia State: They close at ULM and at home against Georgia Southern. It’s all right in front of them if they take care of business.

THREE FOR A BYE—There’s probably just one bye up for grabs and three teams are in the hunt:

UT ARLINGTON (8-6) HOME: (3) Appalachian State, Louisiana, UALR ROAD (3): AT Arkansas State, at Georgia Southern, at Appalachian State---The schedule is favorable, getting the Cajuns at home and having two very winnable road games in Boone and Jonesboro. They have a one game lead and they’ll take a huge step toward that fourth spot by getting a win over the Cajuns Saturday.

LOUISIANA (8-7) HOME (3): Texas State, Georgia Southern, UALR ROAD (2) At UT Arlington, at Arkansas State—The Cajuns play three of their final five games against teams in the bottom four of the standings. That’s the good news. They get Georgia Southern at home and that’s a pretty good matchup for the Cajuns. But none of that will matter if they don’t win this Saturday. A loss puts them two behind UTA in the loss column and UL will be 0-4 against the teams in which they’re fighting for fourth place. Down the stretch, coaches will tell you every game is a must win. Saturday’s game is REALLY a must win for the Cajuns.

SOUTH ALABAMA (7-8) HOME (2): UL Monroe, Troy ROAD (3): at Georgia State, at Georgia Southern, at Arkansas State---The Jaguars have been the most improved team since the beginning of the conference season but time and the schedule may be running out on the Jags. They have to play the three league leaders, with two of them on the road, plus their biggest rival in Troy. Getting to fourth might be too much to ask…but don’t be surprised if they ruin someone’s corn flakes down the stretch. This is a dangerous club on any given night.

FOUR TEAMS, TWO SPOTS---With Appalachian State not eligible for the conference tournament, there will be two other teams that won’t make it to New Orleans. These four teams have their backs against the wall.

TEXAS STATE (5-10) HOME (2): Troy, Arkansas State ROAD (3): at Louisiana, at Appalachian State, at UL Monroe---Danny Kaspar’s club is reeling, having lost eight of their last nine games. The biggest issue is the Bobcats don’t shoot it very well. A good defensive team, Texas State has got to find a way to make shots. Those two games in Louisiana are going to be really tough to win…but the Bobcats have two winnable games at home and one on the road. If they win those three, they should be okay

ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK (5-10) HOME (2): Arkansas State, Georgia State ROAD (3): at Troy, at UT Arlington, at Louisiana---If Steve Shields’ club is going to have a chance to make it to New Orleans, Thursday night’s game against Arkansas State is a must win. The Trojans also have to visit Troy and the other three games are against teams UALR doesn’t match up with very well. Shields is known as one of the league’s best coaches, but after losing James White to an injury, getting to New Orleans may not be in the cards unless the Trojans find a way to pull an upset along the way. Letting games get away against Texas State and Georgia Southern earlier may prove to be their undoing.

ARKANSAS STATE (4-10): HOME (4): UL Monroe, UT Arlington, South Alabama, Louisiana ROAD (2) at UALR, at Texas State---The good news is, the Red Wolves have four of their last five at home following Thursday night’s game at UALR. The bad news is, none of those will be easy to win and Arkansas State hasn’t exactly been a juggernaut at the Convocation Center this year with a 1-5 league record and the win was in overtime. The loser of Thursday’s game in Little Rock will still be mathematically alive, but the reality is, a win Thursday is as much a “must win” for the Arkansas schools as there has been all season.

TROY (4-11) HOME (2): UALR, Georgia State ROAD (3): At Georgia Southern, at Texas State, at South Alabama. Troy has been a tough team to figure out. They have a win over Georgia Southern and a sweep of UT Arlington. That, combined with the fact that nine of their eleven losses are by single digits and you can see this is a dangerous team that has found different ways to lose. They’ve got a chance to win at least three out of their last five. That may or may not be enough. My guess is it would be. I don’t think anyone wants to play Troy in the tournament opener.